ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles by Poonam GuptaSubscribe to Poonam Gupta

How Indian Voters Respond to Candidates with Criminal Charges

This paper uses data from the 2009 Lok Sabha elections to examine the response of voters to candidates who have reported that they have criminal charges against them. Our empirical results show that voters do penalise candidates with criminal charges, but the magnitude of the penalty decreases if there are other candidates in the constituency with criminal charges. The vote shares are positively related to candidate wealth, with the marginal effect being higher for the candidates with criminal charges. Moreover, candidates with criminal charges also have greater wealth.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances

Remittances to India have been growing rapidly since 1991, making the country one of the largest recipients of remittances in the developing world. This paper analyses the determinants of remittances to India and finds that their growth over time can be explained by the increase in migration and total earnings of migrants. Remittances are also affected by the economic environment in source countries, and appear to be counter-cyclical - i e, higher during periods of low economic growth in India. None of the remaining economic or political variables considered in the paper, including political uncertainty, interest rates or exchange rate depreciation, are found to affect remittances significantly.

Non-resident Deposits in India:In Search of Return?

This paper analyses trends in the accumulation of non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits and investigates the determinants of these inflows. It finds that monthly deposit flows have been quite stable since the 1991 crisis; nevertheless, there have been occasions when monthly flows turned negative in the short run, coinciding with adverse domestic or external events. Econometric analysis shows that NRI deposits are influenced by standard risk and return variables. In particular, inflows respond positively to changes in relative interest rates on NRI deposits and LIBOR; negatively to political and geopolitical uncertainties, such as the government resigning in midterm or tensions on India's borders; and also to adverse external events, such as the Asian crisis.

Compensating Government Employees for Price Increase-Basis, Trends and Forecasts

Compensating Government Employees for Price Increase Basis, Trends and Forecasts Poonam Gupta Sanjeev Gupta Does the existing policy of dearness allowance (DA) payments compensate government employees for price increase without introducing distortions in the pay structure? Also, by how much wilt the liability of the govern- ment increase by the turn of the century if present trends in DA payments are maintained? In this paper, the recommendations made by various pay commissions and other bodies on DA since its inception are summarised to bring out the underlying rationale. This is followed by a discussion of the present trends in DA payments. Subsequently, forecast of such payments by the Union government as well as different state governments upto the year 2000 are made. Conclusions are drawn in the last section.

Inflation and Incentive to Invest in Capital Assets

in Capital Assets Poonam Gupta Sanjeev Gupta The purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal effective tax rates for different asset classes and change in user cost with inflation. Such calculations enable a study of the effect of inflation and other allowances like depreciation, investment allowance, etc, on incentive to invest. The results show that the effective tax rates in- crease with inflation but at a decreasing rate. Secondly, inflation increases the dispersion in the effective tax rates causing the tax system to become more non-neutral. A tax system is then suggested which is neutral and compensates for the price increases.

Estimates of Unreported Economy in India-A Reply

Estimates of Unreported Economy in India Poonam Gupta Sanjeev Gupta WE had in our paper [Gupta and Gupta, (1982)] presented estimates of the unofficial economy in India on a yearly basis for the period 1967 to 1978. For this purpose, we employed a technique suggested by Feigc [1979], that has been used to determine the size of the unreported economy in many developed countries including USA and Canada. The results had shown that the unreported activity as a proportion of official GNP has grown from 9.5 per cent in 1967 to nearly 49 per cent by 1978. In his comment, Sandesara [1982] argues that our estimates are on the high side. The purpose of this reply is to show that the theoretical basis of Sandesara's criticism is weak and his methodology inappropriate. Further, his analysis indicates a lack of understanding of the functioning of the unofficial economy. In the next section, we briefly summarise Sande- sara's analysis mainly to highlight its shortcomings. The last section gives the estimates of total economic activity (consisting of both official and unofficial) in India prepared by other researchers which point to the . fact that our estimates of unofficial economy are by no means over estimates.

Estimates of the Unreported Economy in India

This paper presents estimates of India's unofficial economy on a yearly basis for the period 1967 to 1978. These estimates implicitly revise the GNP, per capita and other related statistics for this period. The technique employed has been recently used to determine the size of the unreported economies in USA and Canada.

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