Pranav Gupta

There is a widely held belief that Muslims in India vote en bloc and strategically to defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party. This misconception has given rise to several wild theories about how Muslims participate in electoral arena—that they vote in large numbers, their decision of whom to vote for is influenced by clerics, they are more concerned about religious issues while voting, and are less supportive of India’s political institutions. This article presents a body of evidence using public opinion and election returns data from Uttar Pradesh to show that the political and electoral behaviour of Muslims is no different from that of any other major community in the state.

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Interpreting the Mandate in Jammu and Kashmir

Vol. 50, Issue No. 19, 09 May, 2015

Pranav Gupta, Sanjay Kumar, Shreyas Sardesai, Suhas Palshikar

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BJP's Victory in Haryana

Vol. 49, Issue No. 48, 29 Nov, 2014

Pranav Gupta, Sanjay Kumar, Shreyas Sardesai

The Bharatiya Janata Party pulled off a win in Haryana despite never having had a significant support base in the state or projecting a specifi c leader as its chief ministerial candidate. Aided by infighting in the Congress and the ineptness of the Indian National Lok Dal, the BJP's strategy was to sell the benefit of having the same party in power at the centre and in the state. Barring Jat-dominated west Haryana, the Narendra Modi factor and a social coalition of brahmins, other upper castes and dalits saw it win support in all regions, especially in urban constituencies and among educated and upper-class voters. Yet, it is still early days, and the Congress could prove worrisome if the BJP does not make good on its promises.

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Can the BJP Revive Itself in 2014?

Vol. 48, Issue No. 52, 28 Dec, 2013

Pranav Gupta, Sanjay Kumar

A study of the vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party over the past four Lok Sabha elections indicates a sharp fall in support among its core constituency of the rich and middle-class voters. Recent indications of a surge in support for the BJP points to a return of these classes to it, while the Congress has seen a whittling away of support from all classes of voters. Will this be enough to ensure a victory for the BJP in the next general elections?

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The Weakening of Electoral Anti-Incumbency

Vol. 48, Issue No. 13, 30 Mar, 2013

Pranav Gupta, Sanjay Kumar, Shreyas Sardesai

Anti-incumbency at the state level, or the tendency to vote out an incumbent state government, reached its peak in elections during the 1990s. In the 2000s there has been a reversal of this trend and a shift towards pro-incumbency or a tendency of voters to re-elect the ruling party at the time of elections.