ISSN (Print) - 0012-9976 | ISSN (Online) - 2349-8846

Articles by R NagarajSubscribe to R Nagaraj

How Good Are India's Industrial Statistics?

There is a growing perception of a steady deterioration of the quality of India's industrial statistics. Is this perception justified? To find out, this study examines the quality of the Index of Industrial Production, and some aspects of the Annual Survey of Industries, and the National Accounts Statistics. The study also examines if (a) the popularly used financial indicators really reflect the underlying investment trends, and (b) the expected association between electricity consumption and industrial output holds. Though exploratory, the findings reported seem to support the growing perception.

What Has Happened since 1991-Assessment of India s Economic Reforms

What Has Happened since 1991?
Assessment of India's Economic Reforms R Nagaraj This preliminary and partial assessment of India's orthodox reforms initiated in mid-1991 shows a mixed outcome so far: overcoming the liquidity crisis, the economy has broadly got hack to the growth charted in 1980s, with a modest yet statistically significant slower growth of the secondary sector. The investment-GDP ratio has improved, however, with unfavourable compositional changes; social sector spending has been maintained as allocations for defence and economic services were cut. The fiscal correction has been mainly due to a reduction in public investment and expenditure, Industrial recovery is partial and uneven; and public sector output and profitability improved despite the policy shocks, though their sustainability seem suspect.

India s Capital Market Growth-Trends, Explanations and Evidence

Trends, Explanations and Evidence R Nagaraj This study, first, documents India 's capital market boom, and its proximate causes. What does it mean for the economy and private corporate sector? It is largely disintermediation: household sector substituted 'shares and debentures' for bank deposits, and corporate sector securitised its debt. There is no association between growth rates of the capital market mobilisation and aggregate saving rate, corporate physical investment and value added. Long-term decline in the contribution of internal finance to corporate fixed investment and in profitability in 1980s are noted, despite a fall in ratio of corporate tax to gross profit. The study concludes by raising some questions.

Employment and Wages in Manufacturing Industries-Trends, Hypothesis and Evidence

Employment and Wages in Manufacturing Industries Trends, Hypothesis and Evidence R Nagaraj The decline in registered manufacturing employment that took place in the 80s is widely believed to re/lea substitution of capital for labour, as the wage rate reportedly increased rapidly because of growing rigidities in the labour market How valid is this proposition ? Without getting into the analytical differences on the relationship between labour market behaviour and economic performance, this study examines the trends in wages, and (as a measure of labour market distortions) the power of organised labour. Reassessing the postulated relationship between earnings, capital intensity and employment, the study suggests an alternative explanation for the changes in employment.

Macroeconomic Impact of Public Sector-Enterprises-Some Further Evidence

An analysis of the macroeconomic impact of public sector enterprises (PSEs) for 1960-61 to 1989-90 shows: (i) relatively little increase in their overall deficit compared to the sharp deterioration of the gross fiscal deficit and (ii) a steep decline in their budgetary dependence. While the PSEs' internal resources in financing their investment increased distinctly, the same for the private corporate sector declined, both converging to similar levels by the end of the 80s. A statistically significant trend increase in the PSEs' capacity utilisation is also discernible for 1978-79 to 1990-91. These results, strengthening our earlier findings, seem to question the implicit premises of the ongoing reforms of the public enterprise sector in India.

Public Sector Performance in the Eighties-Some Tentative Findings

Public Sector Performance in the Eighties Some Tentative Findings R Nagaraj This exploratory exercise documents the long-term trends in some aspects of public sector performance since 1960-61

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector-A Reply

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector?
A Reply R Nagaraj AS stated at the beginning of our comment (Nagaraj, 1991) on Bhattacharya and Mitra's (B-M) paper [1990], our limited purpose was to examine their assertion: ". . that the tertiary sector has grown relatively faster than alt other sectors throughout the post-independence period of the Indian economy" (p 2445). Evidently B-M's [1991] response, largely reiterating their arguments on the alleged excess growth of tertiary sector, appears to be quite outside the scope of our comment and is hence not discussed here. They could perhaps respond to Ghosh's (1991) remarks on their paper.

Increase in India s Growth Rate

Increase in India's Growth Rate R Nagaraj BHARGAVA AND JOSHI [1990] (hereafter B-J) have offered a tentative explanation for the improved growth rate of India's GDP since 1975-76 (or 1980-81), mainly based on their evidence of an increase in the growth rate of domestic output' originating in the private sector relative to that in the public sector. We propose to subject the empirical basis of the foregoing inference to a close scrutiny in Section I. In Section II, a renewed attempt is made at comparing the growth rates of GDP public and private sectors (and changes in them) to reassess the validity of B-J's results. Though the authors have drawn some far-reaching implications of the recent policy changes on India's recent maeroeconomic performance based on apparently limited evidence, our re-examination is restricted to their finding of an increase in the growth rate of GDP originating in private sector compared to that of public sector.

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector

Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector?
R Nagaraj ARGUING the relatively larger share of tertiary sector in national income in the recent years to be a consequence of its faster growth rate (compared to the primary and secondary sectors) ever since the independence, Bhattacharya and Mitra (1990) (henceforth B-M) have drawn attention to the implications of such a trend for growth and distribution. To quote them: "The sectoral disaggregation of national income shows that the tertiary sector has grown relatively faster than other sectors throughout the post- independence period of the Indian economy" (p 2445).

Industrial Growth-Further Evidence and towards an Explanation and Issues

This paper, first, provides some further evidence (in support of our earlier findings) on the growth of manufacturing output in the eighties using the Annual Survey of Industries. Noting the limitations of attributing the improved growth rate mainly (or solely) to an increase in the output of consumer durables and/or to the (once over) changes in the policies, the paper then attempts to explore the possible 'real' factors to account for the observed phenomenon in the context of the debate on industrial growth and 'stagnation' A re-examination of some of the prominent hypotheses in the light of the experience of the eighties suggests (a) some favourable changes in the composition of capital formation, (b) an improvement in the rate and structure of public investment in general and (perhaps as a result of it) performance of infrastructure industries in particular, and (c) a reversal of the adverse movement in intersectoral terms of trade; all of which could have favourably contributed to the observed higher growth rate of the manufacturing sector..

Growth Rate of India s GDP, 1950-51 to 1987-88-Examination of Alternative Hypotheses

Growth Rate of India's GDP, 1950-51 to 1987-88 Examination of Alternative Hypotheses R Nagaraj A rigorous statistical testing of the alternative hypotheses on the long-term trend growth rate of India's (measured) real gross domestic product does not reject the proposition of a break in the series at 1979-80 and an increased growth rate thereafter This result is found to hold even when the observation for 1979-80 (a statistical outlier) is dropped. Moreover, the statistically significant break with a positive sign since 1979-80 also is evident for GDP excluding 'public administration and defence'; and even after adjusting for the observed lowering of the growth of the latter in the revised (with 1980-81 as the base year) series of National Accounts Statistics.

Growth in Manufacturing Output since 1980-Some Preliminary Findings

This note describes trends in the growth of gross value added in the manufacturing sector using mainly National Accounts Statistics, 1989 and reports findings of a comparison of the observed trends in the eighties with the experience of the previous three decades. The results of this statistical exercise appear to be significant in the context of the doubts expressed on the validity of the revised index of industrial production (with 1980-81 as the base year) and the continuing debate on the persistence of a 'relative stagnation' or 'deceleration' since the mid-sixties.


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