Post-Copenhagen Climate Agenda

The climate negotiations in this month will set the post-Copenhagen agenda, and the strategic issue for developing countries is whether to focus on the new architecture of monitoring, reporting and verification or on developing a new framework that redefines the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. As future increases in global emissions of carbon dioxide are going to come from developing countries, they have to be innovative in modifying growth pathways in order to achieve sustainable development, and take the lead in setting the post-Copenhagen agenda.

The annual global emissions need to be limited to 44 gigatons (GT) by 2020 (in 2005 global emissions were 45 GT) if global temperature rise is to be kept below 2 degrees Celsius. We need cumulative emissions reduction, during this period, of 14 GT from business as usual position, whereas the average of the pledges recorded after Copenhagen amounts to only around 7 GT.