Recent Trends in India's Merchandise Trade

The contraction of India's merchandise trade, both exports and imports, from December 2014 is a worrying development, even if it has led to a temporary improvement in trade balance. The substantial decline in international oil prices, and its direct impact on value of trade, explains this fall only partially. An analysis of the figures tends to confirm the persistence of industrial stagnation rather than a revival of growth in Indian manufacturing, and suggests that this tendency is being reinforced.