Some Puzzling Features of India's Recent GDP Numbers

An analysis of the end-November 2015 data release of the Central Statistics Offi ce raises some issues that must be kept in mind while discussing the state of India's economy. If past trends are anything to go by, economic growth in 2015-16 will not improve in the last quarter as some seem to hope. The movements in the GDP defl ators and the very odd behaviour of a gradual decline in the investment rate together indicate that growth in 2015-16 will not end as earlier forecast.