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On GDP Estimates -- A set of EPW articles
A set of articles from the Economic and Political Weekly scrutinise the new methodology of National Account Statistics estimates which has used new concepts and employs new sources of data
1. Quarterly GDP Estimation: Can It Pick up Demonetisation Impact?
by R Nagaraj
11 Mar, 2017
The latest quarterly estimates of gross domestic product by the new National Accounts Statistics methodology are once again in the news for the wrong reasons. With inadequate accurate information available on a quarterly basis, the estimates hardly represent the state of the economy and reflect the effects of demonetisation over the October–December 2016 period.
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2. New Series of National Accounts: A Review
by EPW Research Foundation
14 Feb, 2015
The new series of national accounts released by the Central Statistics Office has made a number of conceptual changes and has tapped new sources of data. This note presents a discussion of the key modifications in this new series of national accounts.
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3. Seeds of Doubt on New GDP Numbers: Private Corporate Sector Overestimated?
by R Nagaraj
07 Nov, 2015
The estimates of the private corporate sector in 2012-13, using a new data set, seem to account for a substantial part of the upward revision of the economic aggregates in the new series of National Accounts Statistics. This brief note poses a few questions about their veracity.
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4. Private Corporate Sector in New NAS Series: Need for a Fresh Look
by J Dennis Rajakumar
18 Jul, 2015
Revisiting the MCA-21-based estimates of the size of the private corporate sector in the rebased National Accounts Statistics, it is argued that the use of a single blow-up factor for non-government non-financial public and private limited companies could be leading to an overestimation of gross value added and gross savings. If there has to be a blow-up, it should be done separately, given the distinct characteristics of public and private limited companies.
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5. Size and Structure of India's Private Corporate Sector: Implications for the New GDP Series
by R Nagaraj
07 Nov, 2015
In the new National Accounts Statistics, the absolute size of the gross domestic product for 2011-12 is smaller by 2.3% compared to the old series; but the private corporate sector's size is larger by 43%; and, its GDP share higher by 11 percentage points. This is true for the next two years as well. The new estimates are more realistic, claims the Central Statistics Office, as they better represent the contribution of nearly a million "active companies." Critics are unconvinced, however. Seeking to narrow the differences between the competing views, this paper compares the official figures with an alternative estimate for the private corporate sector to gauge the magnitude of (the claimed) improvement, or (the putative) overestimation.
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6. Continuous Revisions Cast Doubts on GDP Advance Estimates
by J Dennis Rajakumar and S L Shetty
05 Mar, 2016
Two recent press releases by the Central Statistics Office substantially revise the new series of National Accounts Statistics. The new releases are more than just routine updates, and entail methodological changes and incorporate new sources of data, perhaps in response to various critiques. Yet, on comparing the advance estimates released with past such estimates, the CSO's latest growth projections once again turn out to be far too optimistic.
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7. Unorganised Sector Output in the New GDP Series: Why Has It Shrunk?
by R Nagaraj
02 Apr, 2016
In the new National Accounts Statistics, household (unorganised or informal) sector output for 2011-12 has shrunk by 22% in absolute size, or, by 11 percentage points of GDP, compared to the older series with 2004-05 as the base year. In per capita terms, household sector output as a proportion of GDP in the organised sector has come down from 11% to 7%. A change in the methodology of estimation has been the cause. This article investigates the merits of the new methodology.
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8. Estimates of High GDP Growth for 2015-16: Not Entirely Convincing
by J Dennis Rajakumar
25 Jun, 2016
In producing the new series, the Central Statistics Office with its rebased National Accounts Statistics has done a studious job of marshalling diverse sources of data and weaving them together into a composite new source. However, the final picture of NAS data would have been more acceptable if better caution was exercised in using new concepts as well as new sources of data, and in weighing the growth results against frequent and extensive revisions. The CSO has failed to refine the growth results juxtaposed against the repetitive and substantial revisions that the data sources have impelled and have completely ignored the analytical construct of gross domestic product at factor cost.
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9. Some Puzzling Features of India's Recent GDP Numbers
by J Dennis Rajakumar and S L Shetty
09 Jan, 2016
An analysis of the end-November 2015 data release of the Central Statistics Offi ce raises some issues that must be kept in mind while discussing the state of India's economy. If past trends are anything to go by, economic growth in 2015-16 will not improve in the last quarter as some seem to hope. The movements in the GDP defl ators and the very odd behaviour of a gradual decline in the investment rate together indicate that growth in 2015-16 will not end as earlier forecast.
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