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Characterising Economic Activity in Near Real-time Using High-frequency Indicators in Haryana
There exists almost no information on the dynamics of the economy on a quarterly or monthly basis at the state level. The use of high-frequency indicators opens the door for nowcasting the state economy and would also help to calibrate policy changes in the very short run. This is a pioneering attempt for Haryana, where the HFIs were observed and compared with the gross state domestic product and tax revenue performances and were found to be in sync with each other.
There are very few states in India that are currently publishing quarterly gross state domestic product (GSDP) estimates, namely Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. These estimates provide a snapshot of the economy over a short period of time and therefore play a crucial role in gauging the performance of a state’s economy, provided that they are made available in time and are derived from the current trends reflected by the ground reality (NSO 2020: 9).
Due to the lack of timely and adequate data collection, there has been very little methodological work on the adoption of measuring aggregate income at the state level on a quarterly basis. So, it has remained a challenging task to ascertain how the state economy is behaving in real time. This may be partly attributed to the legacy of centralised planning, which had made the state governments heavily reliant upon the central statistical agencies for data that should ideally have been collected and disseminated by the state economic and statistical department itself. Partly, it may be attributed to the fact that there exists a lack of adequate and trained human power to carry out surveys and adopt methodological processes at the state level (NSO 2020: 76).
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